Hard evidence, the regular Russian army invades Ukraine

Over the last 72 hours, increaring reports of regular “Russian army” deployments inside Ukraine emerged, not only from blogging insiders and investigative homepages, but also from the Ukrainian president and army command themselves (a very rare move, despite the widely dominating verbal calming down attempts). Nonetheless, footage to prove such “new” statements was lagging over the first days, a fact, understandable under the current circumstances of the Moscow regime, not willing to uncover its full-scale military invasion into Ukraine. However since yesterday, January 22, several undeniable video sequences from different front sectors across Donbas emerged, undeniably supporting the Ukrainian intelligence reports.

1. The Grad-K in Donetsk

Most bulletproof evidence is the appearance of the most modern Russian army 2B26 Grad-K system mounted on a KamAZ-5350 chassis (pictures below) just a few kilometers from Donetsk airport. This refurbished BM-21 system was revealed in 2011 and delivered to the Russian armed forces from 2012. It is ONLY operated by the Russian army itself and there is no other source of such weapon system available.

Grad-K

The Grad-K in Donetsk

Further details are striking. The systems appears in Donetsk in fresh winter camouflage showing it was prepared for winter war and surely sent in under the current weather conditions. Also the “rebel” camera man pulls down his camera as soon as it leaves the line of 4 older BM-21, mounted on Ural-375D (a system, delivered in its hundreds by the Russian army to its proxies and forces in Donbas). He obviously has the orders to not film such system in that area and that time. However, he lifts it up 4 seconds too early clearing the sight of this 100% Russian army weapon system.

2. The BM-30 Smerch in Makeevka

In the evening of January 22, footage of a BM-30 MLRS system appeared, claimed to be taken in Makeevka, just a few kilometers east of Donetsk and less than 20 km to the nearest frontline. The BM-30 “Smerch” (also known as 9A52-2 Smerch-M) is the heaviest multi launch rocket system (MLRS) in its “family”, exceeding the smaller BM-21 and BM-27 in its caliber (300mm) and range (up to 90 km). Independent geolocations of the footage by several expertes (e.g. Dajey Petros and me) confirmed the the location exactly where it was reported to be, so (very) close to the frontline for a system with such operational range.

BM-30

The BM-300 in Makeevka

The system has never before been recorded in Russian-held territory for a simple reason: It was not there. While the Ukrainian army lost several weapon systems during the created boilers in August and September last year to Russian invaders, the BM-30 was always able to stay far behind the front due to its range and was never captured by “rebel” forces or the vast majority of Russian mercenaries and Russian army forces. Knowing that there is no credible narrative for the appearance of such heavy and exclusive system “in separatist hands”, the Russian invasion command abstained from sending the system to Ukraine over the following 4 “ceasefire” months, despite deploying thousands of other military vehicles like tanks, apc and smaller MLRS. However now that it goes “all in” and started an offensive to take entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions (and even more), the Russian army command decided to not spare this long range, deadly tool of warfare anymore, no matter the fact that this is another 100% evidence, it is fighting in neighboring Ukraine.

3. More proof

There is much more (very) recent evidence that Ukrainian intelligence and all “real” / evidence-based experts are right, calling the latest developments a flagrant and open Russian aggression against its western neighbour. Just like the pictures of Russian Far East soldiers with green ribbon after taking Checkpoint 31 in northern Luhansk region, the secret recording of a 500+ troops Russian Army convoy, approaching the town of Stakhanov or footage of a military makeshift bridge, built by Russian sappers over a river in Luhansk with the help of a MT-55A AVLB. …

But all these “smoking guns” might be disputed and denied as “so or differently explainable”, despite all indication leading into the same (Eastern) direction. Meanwhile the two above mentioned cases, recorded over the last 24 hours, provide sufficient evidence, regular Russian army troops are not just “located all around Donbas, ready to move in” – like acknowledged by many western media and security sources – but fighting on all front sectors inside Ukraine, reinforcing and replacing its pre-existing invasion forces.

PS.

This article only lists NEW evidence that appeared over the last 24 hours and after the statement of Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko in Davos. Of course, multiple Russian-army-only equipment appearances over the last 7 months (T-72B3, T-72B1, BPM-97, GAZ-3937, BTR-82A  etc.) leave no doubt that it was and is the Russian army that exclusively supplies all anti-Ukrainian forces in the Donbas with weapons and exerts its surpreme command over them.

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47 thoughts on “Hard evidence, the regular Russian army invades Ukraine

  1. Hi, i;ve been following you for some time, like since first masked men popped up in Crimea, and thats it. I cant express how much I admire your work, you and two other guys on twitter, i think you know who’s on my mind. I would be really happy if I could help you spread the real story of whats going on right now in E Ukraine, and thats why I’d like to ask you if i could translate some of your articles, maybe all, into polish? Please let me know what you whink of it.

    • Hey there, thanks for your warm words. Feel free to translate my articles in Polish and post them on your own site – just with CLEAR reference to my English blog! =)
      I would be glad to spread your finished Polish articles via my Twitter account and give you and your blog credit for the work.

  2. Well this is a good article.But it is obvious to every one that Russia supply’s and supports the separatists with arms.But on one thing I will have to disagree and that is on the number of Russian troops in Ukraine.Most of the troops that I have seen are from the SOF(Special operation forces) which include a lot of Chchens(that’s why you see them in Ukraine) but as well as other Russians.These troops are specialized in EW(electronic warfare) scouting and sabotage.Regular Russian troops were in Ukraine in the summer but they were replaced with locals’s who were trained in Russia over the summer.Don’t get me wrong but a lot of the population in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions are Russians and don’t expect them not to support Russia and the separatists.The largest problem in this conflict is the Ukrainian government they are too much anti-Russian in a country that has a large Russian minority.There is an easy solution to this crisis but the only problem is the US(they are the only ones that are benefiting from this conflict).The solution is Finland.They are in the EU but not in NATO which means that both EU(trade and commerce) and Russia(No NATO bases on there border and also a economic benefit) are happy with Finland.If Ukraine had done the same and said we will join the EU but not NATO and we will keep our relationship on the same level as it was with Russia with both military and economic terms, Crimea would still be in Ukraine and war in the east would not have come.Both the EU and Russia would have benefited(economically) from this.The only one who would not have a benefit is the US and NATO.This crisis had a simple solution but now that solution is gone and I’m afraid that war is the only solution now.And in this war Ukraine will be the one that suffers the most as no country not even the US will help them with anything they will only talk and do nothing.

    • They will name You shill or putlerbot bc you point US and NATO.
      US and NATO are innocent it is nothing that they financed this coup and they keep Ukrainian government like dog on leash so ukrainian goverment will try achive US and NATO goals not their own nation…it is nothing all of this is Russia fault.
      Funny see ppl who try in one moment look smart and reliable and in same article writing childish thing about russian invasion completely ignoring history and geopolitics.

    • Hey David, you seem to accept that russia would have right to decide Ukraines politics. In indipendent country that cannot be possible. What comes into Finland the situation is totally different. When we(yes, I´m Finnish) did join to EU 1994, was Mr. Yeltsin in power in russia. His politics was to build trust between east and west and bury the Sovjet Union as deep as possible. You might remember his quite open-minded behavior. We also had luck to join together with Sweden. Five years earlier membership would be impossible. So timing is everything. For your information David, I can tell that will to join into NATO has risen in Finland 60% in a year. If we want to join and NATO decides to accept us, does russia have right to invade?

    • I think David Ancev that you are wrong, well not completely , but simply wrong. That results from the fact, that you are simply narrow-minded. First of all – the US and EU do not profit from the Ukraine being in or outside of NATO. In fact Ukraine in NATO brings more tensions in the line with Russia and more responsibilities in the region. The beneifts are weak. But what you completely neglect is the fact that there is a seperate nation – Ukrainians , who want to self govern their sovereign country. And it is up to the nation and their leaders, what should be their geopolitical status and what their allies should be. Recent movements of their neighbour – Russia, since a year now, has pushed them against any will to cooperate with the country both economically and military. It will not be reverted soon, even after the was. The Ukrainians , starting their revolution , wanted to release the burden of Russia like statehood – meanig a country politically and ecomonicaly fallen , where mafia-like political structures , plus corruption based economy causes big poverty among majoroty of the society in opposition to the minority reach. And one should never want to forbid any nation to become a better state. I think you and the like narrow-minded live menthaly in a 18th century world when there where so called “zones of influence” cultivated geopolitically. These times have gone and the West is very much in favor of freedom these days, as opposed to Russia who is in favor of subordination and slavery of other neighboring contries. That resulted in the fact the the Ukrainan nation has suffered a lot in the recent 20th century, namely a hunger resulting in genocide ( such a food reach country had to suffer hunger, becuase some russian olighars wanted to eat), big and cruel genocide of their population at Stalinism, displacement of etnic Tatar population of Crimea plus the blockade of development in the times after the Red Curtain collapsed (since 1990) .
      Therefore they have a full right to hate their neighbour Russia, but still the government, the one after Maidan, and newly ellected one , has announced a full respect of Russian minorities rights in all regions of the country. The russian language was not forbidded , as one may be claiming – ukr. president did not sign that act.
      So , you should see this as a totally unjustifiable russian military aggresion against their neigbour , because the mad leader of this country decided to do so. He invokes nationalism and nazism among the people of Russia, who constantly want to seek their enemies and want to justify why the country is not prospering as it should , blaming the others. Russia is a totalitarian state, in which information is not for everyone, instead there is information chaos supplied to the society plus dissinformative lies. You are the product of such a treatment that has lasted decades already. So better wrap yourself up – the russian people , and solve your internal problems among you before you try to rule other independant states. And ease yourself from destructive thinking that you could win anything in a global war, that you are heading to. You have too many enemies around you, including asian states (almost all), american states (all), that is caused by you irrational politic throughtout the decades.

    • As Eastern Ukrainian I can say that joining EU didn’t mean joining NATO. Many Ukrainians including myself were against NATO, because we hadn’t anyone to fight with. And it didn’t mean total tearing relationships with Russia. And, of course, it didn’t mean military bases in Crimea. But Putin thought otherwise. So after impudent annexation of Crimea and invasion in Donbass, Ukraine has no choice but ask NATO for help. President Poroshenko said it will be referendum about joining NATO, but I won’t wonder if Ukrainians will vote positive. I can say Putin provoked Ukraine, so now it’s choice between Ukraine in NATO or Ukraine under total control by Russia.

      • As a Ukrainian I didn’t know that there were some Eastern Ukrainians, always thought there’s simply Ukrainians… Me, as a Ukrainian myself, I always supported Ukraine’s NATO membership idea, and the current Russian aggression only proves I was right fearing Russian troops on the Ukrainian soil. According to the last surveys, more than 50% of Ukrainians support Ukraine joining NATO, while a year ago that figure was around 35% for NATO!

      • The problem is, Compic, that NATO does not accept members with on-going territorial disputes. So the invasion and annexation of Crimea and the ongoing conflict in the Donbas effectively preclude NATO membership for Ukraine. The time to have stated working on NATO membership was 1992 when the USSR first broke up. The time to have joined was the same time as the Baltic countries did.

        I mean no offence, and half my family originates from Eastern Ukraine, but I find it very sad that so many Ukrainians did not know enough of their own history to be able to discern where the real threats to Ukraine were (although of course I understand full well why so many Ukrainians are ignorant of history).

    • Actually Yanik rejected EU agreement pact not even a plan for joining EU in 2014 Nov, so don’t bother with propaganda abt NATO and US..

    • Understand the hybrid war: Putin has more trolls than Stalin ever had solders in his army.
      There is a huge effort put by Putin’s FSB Sect into the propaganda war. A lot of Western politicians are corrupted by the Kremlin FSB Sect.
      What you need to understand about a modern war is that anything outside a city is quickly destroyed by artillery fire. Example from yesterday: Check point 31. Therefore, cities are used as cover in hope there will be restrained. Or to attract attention to “atrocities”. It is the Palestinian tactics that earn them hundreds of millions from Western Bureaucracy (your tax payer’s money). Putin applies this tactic in Ukraine. Because the retaliation is with restraint, the Russian fire themselves on the cities kept by them. To do more Palestinians.
      The first guy means they, as volunteer battalion with policing function, should go after the regular army and not ahead. The second guy is in charge of prisoners exchange. He is partially a troll. He inserts FSB message occasionally. Though he helps with prisoners exchange.
      It is a hybrid war. Similar kind as in Syria. Easily applicable to the rest of Europe – knock off a part of the population with propaganda of some sect or ideology (Muslim), supply them with arms, the bureaucracy will remain paralyzed or useless or traitors.
      Nobody in the West understands this. The bureaucracy is parasitic. Does not do its job any more. Embassies and intelligence pass their days masturbating.

    • The first commentator is Ruslan Onishchenko, former “commander” of the Shakhtersk Battalion, supposedly composed of Ukrainian patriots from the eastern Donetsk region fighting against the pro-Russian separatists. But the battalion was disbanded in October 2014 after it was discovered that a large number of its fighters, led by Onishchenko, were looting the area. Onishchenko is a common criminal and not fighting for any country or cause. He is more likely operating with the pro-Russian separatists now.

      Vladimir Ruban, the second commentator, is a very suspect character. He has arranged “prisoner swaps” between the Ukrainian forces and the separatists, but he only ever appears to be critical of the Ukrainian government forces, despite huge amounts of evidence that the separatists have been firing artillery from residential areas and operating out of residential apartment blocks, thereby using civilian residents as human shields. In this clip, he points the blame entirely at Ukrainian government forces for the shelling and destruction of civilian areas. He is deeply mistrusted in Ukraine.

      • Chad, you are too fast with your labeling of the battalion commander. A “comment criminal” does not need to risk his life. An idiot or a sect member – yes. This Onishchenko commander used to be a businessman in that area. There is huge illegal coal mine business in the East of Ukraine. Ukrainian coal is 2 times more expensive that on the international market. In reality it is more a scheme. There used to be a 2 billion USD annual government subsidy to the mine industry. It used to be stolen by the “oligarchs”, while a great proportion of the coal is extracted in illegal mines at lower cost. The cover was provided by the police. Onishchenko was conflicting with police because he did not want to pay protection money to the police.
        If you steal 2 billion USD every year, it is easy to become an “oligarch”. The police in Ukraine is an organized group. As the leader of the pre-revolution ruling party, Party of Regions said once: Donetsk (Donbass “capital”, 1 mln inhabitants) is divided by 3 organized crime groups: the police, the prosecutors and the judges. Very little changed since then. The Interior Ministry tried to liquidate all the volunteers battalions. All of them are regularly accused of “atrocities” and “luting”. In the video, the commander mis formulates his thought and it is used by the FSB film studio in this propagandist clip.
        The fact that the second speaker is “mistrusted” is an overreach. People are idiots and they usually like everybody who is shown on TV. Very little critical thinking is observed. The commentator Chad is one example of this: the organized crime group “Police” says someone is luting and Chads immediately believe it.
        This video is made by the FSB, Kremlin’s security service, for manipulation purposes. There thousands and thousand of videos like this. Putin has more trolls than Stalin had solders. It is an attempt to take over the world. In a way – already successful. Too many idiots believe. Journalism is dead everywhere. The populace is too stupid.

      • New Neanderthal: Although it’s tiresome to correspond with people who think everyone else entertains only illusions, I’m not sure what the main issue between us that you’re trying to identify is. Perhaps it is simply the question as to whether there are, in fact, any honorable people fighting on any side in the Ukrainian war. I believe there are; you apparently do not. I described Onishchenko as a “common criminal,” and I haven’t heard or read anything from you or anyone else to contradict that credibly. Ruban is highly suspect, whatever use the FSB is making of his remarks out of context. I’ll credit him with some successful “prisoner swaps.”

        Would-be allies on both sides are antagonistic in many instances. For example, the Russian “Don Cossacks” operating and led by Pavel Dryomov in Luhansk have accused the LNR leadership publicly of stealing coal, and have said that LNR leader Plotnitsky is in cahoots with Opposition Bloc MP Korolevska and former Gov. Yefremov. But the “Cossacks” themselves are operating as a gendarmerie in the area and robbing like highwaymen. Who cares? They’re all scum.

        Also, I am aware that the RF security services are no only apparently involved in the propaganda business in the Ukrainian war, but also that some of this material cannot in any way make the current Russian regime or the separatists appear in a favorable light. This implies that elements of the RF security services are working against the interests of the current Russian regime, which is in any case likely, and we could certainly expect that – were Putin to be removed – such services would have played a part.

        So I don’t understand the basis for your attitude that everyone else is naive and/or an idiot, while you are the only one wise enough to see the truth. Very tiresome. (It is a red flag of Putin’s internet troll army to see the word “idiot” appear in comments sections of websites and blogs as well, by the way.)

    • Chad,
      I write in a direct manner which is acceptable on the Internet.
      Commenting here, I exposed a Milosevic supporter from Serbia. Milosevic is a Serbian version of Putin. He is responsible for similar tragedy in Yugoslavia, a fratricide war. The Serbian person never understood that and today supports a Russian Milosevic. It is intellectually degrading.
      I also exposed a Ukrainian commentator who wrote things that contradicts completely the “hard evidence” from the article.
      These two examples support my thesis that people are too stupid for the general election to work normally. There are other overwhelming evidence for that. For instance, Putin is very popular and is reelected.
      My statements are true, rip up the propaganda programing of people’s brains, and are served in a satirical and blunt manner.
      For the commented video, my remarks concern the subtleties.
      What happens in Ukraine is that a propaganda by a totalitarian suicidal sect (the FSB Sect) transformed large quantity of the population in irrational sect members. They execute POW saying: “you came to my lend…” thought the POW are from the same area or 100km away. The fact that these people are sect members is an insight you would not hear a lot. The same applies to the pseudo Muslim fighters – they are just confused people, sect members.
      Majority of people in Donbass and in the whole Russia are disoriented. That Onischenko guy is not. He still remembers what his country is, who he is, and so forth. That makes him an elite guy and not a common criminal. His criminal past is also controversial. Any accusations from Ukrainian interior or media should be taken with extreme caution as these are not reliable, corrupt, manipulative.
      The other guy is an FSB troll, but the FSB would not accept anything else. Would not accept “not a troll”. Meanwhile, the guy does help with the prisoners exchange.
      Your most recent comment about the “cossacks” being just scum are also a simplified vision served by propaganda. These cossacks are somewhat more idealistic. The division between them and the more tightly controlled by the FSB groups should be exploited. A smarter UA forces could allay with them against the others. Such attempts took place on a middle level but were blocked by the top, Poroshenko and the group of traitors, controlled by Putin. The UA propaganda described “cossacks” as scumbags. And that’s the version that you have.
      90% of what you see in the main stream is propaganda, manipulation. 90% of commentators are trolls or are manipulated themselves. You need to deconstruct and try to figure out the reality. Then, fight the propaganda when possible.
      It is the purpose of my comments here.
      Best regards.

  3. Pingback: Conflictreport.info: Веские доказательства вторжения регулярных российских войск в Украину | Глобус Украины

  4. Seems some of you misunderstood me.I’m not talking that Ukraine should not be independent but it needs to consider how it acts when it is talking to Russia.Poroshenko is a man that Russia can talk to and he understands the situation perfectly but your PM Yatsyenuk is the biggest problem.Not only is he a hawk and constantly insults Russia he has no diplomatic speech.My opinion is that he leaves the talking to Proshenko.Also Russia has a lot of friends(China announced that it will build a 242bn $ railway from Bejing to Moscow) while Ukraine is alone in this.If you think NATO and Europe will help you you guys are dead wrong.This people are going to shout and scream with their sanctions(which will only help Moscow to rally the people to its support examples are Cuba and Iran where sanctions were imposed but achived nothing) and in the end will abandon you to Russia. Crimea(it has offshore oil and military bases which were worth a lot) was the real prize of Ukraine and Moscow got it.Just look at the western media they are ignoring the conflict in Ukraine most of there own program is Muslims, ISIS and the death of the Saudi King.Ukraine like many before would soon be abandoned because the west has no interest in spending money and getting nothing in return.

    And by the way I’m not from Russia.Just trying to be real and looking at the facts :).

    • Ya, but this mess didn’t start with Ukrainians protesting in the maidan because they wanted to join NATO, they wanted closer ties to europe, which they saw as the only way to escape from 23 years of being a russian puppet state that only brought them poverty and generalized corruption. No matter how Yatsnyuk speaks about russia there was no justification for war, as simple as that…

    • David, nice job cherry-picking and drawing false historical equivalencies in both your posts here. You have less a grasp of current & past dynamics than you think you do, not that you’ll ever admit it (or even realize it).

    • David Ancev: you may well be right the Ukraine is alone in this…..but “Russia has a lot of friends”???!??? Give me a break. Russia has NO “friends”, and only a few shaky and nervous allies. Let me assure you that China is NOT Russia’s “friend”. Belarus? Kazakhstan? Armenia? No real friendship there. There are of course Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Transdniesteria and the DNR and LNR, although they are really more like imaginary friends.

  5. Just remember Victoria Nuland on Maidan, remember how she said “Yatz is the man” weeks before Yanukovich fled, remember how “the sniper story” has never been resolved (I know, you’ll say that those were Berkut snipers, but I really doubt it), remember Odessa victims and how West had quickly forgotten them – US of A has its bloody hands here making Slavs fight between them for the sake of corporations and USA interests.

    I’ve been there, I’ve seen it all, I was born in Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and I’m still in pain for the destruction of that beautiful country.

    And yes, we had OUR Victoria Nuland, we had false flag operations all around, hundreds of thousands died, not a single politician or “war businessman”.

    Ukrainian Army Orchestra had a concert in Belgrade just before Euromaidan events. I had a great night there, I hope those guys and girls are safe and well.

    Don’t trust Americans, don’t trust EU, don’t trust Russians, no one wishes you well. You are alone in this one, believe me. America wants you to be it’s cannon fodder. EU has no idea what it wants yet. As for Russia, I think that they got what they wanted (Crimea) and it’s sole interest is that Ukraine doesn’t become NATO member. NATO will not bring you any security, you’ll just become nearest of all Russian targets in some future (inevitable) war.

    Be smart. Be careful. Clean your country of Right Sector – you don’t need these idiots around.

    And although I love Russia and Russians, I wish Ukraine all the best, heartbroken for the fact that Slavic brothers are killing each other in someone’s (Anglo-saxon/German/multinational corporation/Russia) geopolitical game of chess.

    • Your problem, Serb, is that you and many other have been knocked off by the pseudo-nationalist propaganda of an idiot man – Milocevic. You attacked your brothers Croats and others which was extremely immoral. There are no borders in EU. Without the war, anybody could live where he wish anyway.
      You still did not figure that out. From the practical point – also absurd. But first of all – immoral, criminal. On the opposing side, assholes emerged too though.
      By the way, genetically Serbs are 75% identical to Bosniacs (same haplogoup) and only 15% of the Serb descend from warrior Slavs who migrated to Balkans in antiquity. The Bosniac haplogroup is there from the Neolithic.
      Note that Putin and FSB Sect are not nationalist. They could not care less about Russians, Slavs or any ethnicity. Largest Muslim flash-mob are taking place in Moscow. 200k (two hundred thousand) foreigners do pseudo prayer in the streets of Moscow. Google: Muslims in Moscow – Images.
      Also note that in a recent deal, Putin accepted Chinese colons, settlers, in “special areas of development” in Russia. In exchange for loans, Putin is ok with colonizing Russia by Chinese.
      Right Sector in Ukraine is a Christian nationalist party. The only more or less acceptable choice in comparison to an unprecedented marauders and traitors that were elected instead. Nouland is as stupid as you are or worse. Yats is moron and a cocky marauder. No reforms, no gov spending reduction, only schemes. Nobody in US embassy even speaks Russian or Ukrainian. All the US Ambassadors are ok with Ukraine being absorbed by Russia. There some factions in US against it but the State Department is ok.

      Nationalism is the only way for stupid European people like you to survive. There are enough people in the world to replace you and me. We have no value in the multi kuli world. Especially you, because you are stupid and vulnerable to manipulation.

      Ask yourself why you could not google stuff and figure it out yourself or why nobody in Serbia could not google it and figure it out. Your example, Serb, shows how stupid people are. You confirm my thesis that a Sect can manipulate up to 80% of the population. Any sect which is active enough.

      Use you brain and use Google. Form an adequate picture of reality.

      • Your problem, my dear thenewneandertalien, apart from apparent ignorance regarding both historical and present geopolitical events in the world is that you obviously don’t realize that calling people “stupid” does not add any credibility to YOUR opinions and statements.

        Although I’m always open for exchange of ideas and opinions, I see no point in any further discussion with you for above mentioned reasons. Your rudeness has obviously pushed me a bit in that direction.

        Have a good life, find your inner peace.

        Best regards.

    • Perhaps even this scenario cannot be excluded: Following the rest of the pattern it is thinkable that the removal of Yanukovych was engineered by elements of the KGB with the expectation that a leaderless Ukraine would topple into anarchy into which a Russian force massed on the border could march to restore order, restoring Yanukovych with approval from some EU capitals. With such a scenario Crimea would not have had to be annexed by Russia insofar as all of Ukraine would then have been effectively ruled by Russia. Since a transitional government emerged quickly in Kiev that began to bring about order counter to expectations plan B including the takeover of Crimea was pursued and Strelkov was ordered to start the war in the East. The massive demonstrations that took place were beginning to run out of steam after Yanukovych had reached agreement with the EU. It was clearly not in Putin’s interests to have a weakened president in power who was dependent on the EU. So the snipers became a necessity to enrage all parties sufficiently and parallel to encourage the evaporation of the security forces guarding government facilities in Kiev. The total picture of what took place makes this scenario plausible. Victoria Nuland and the CIA had zero to do with this. Strelkov in one interview in Russian media even commented that several provocations referencing specifically the Odessa fire were insufficient to cause open hostility and that he had to literally create the war in the East. ‘His comments are not only empty words.

      • I like your scenario. It makes sense in light of Ukraine’s weak history of independence and Putin’s alleged comment to Bush Jr. that Ukraine was “not a real country.” We cannot know, but my sense from being in Ukraine recently was that the will to fight the Russians is much greater than Putin probably anticipated. I think he expected a “cakewalk” (to use one US commentator’s words regarding to the Iraq War prior to the US invasion in 2003). What he found was rather different, and some estimates of the number of actual Russian regular military personnel killed in Ukraine already reaches into the thousands.

  6. Great work here and on twitter by the Authour. Today, an offensive by Russians is reported by the Author on twitter. Ukrainian media and military indeed do not even mention it. You can understand from that an unhealthy media and bureaucracy situation in Ukraine.
    Ideological analysis is missing though.

    Thank you, Author, and will contribute.

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  8. Про войска не скажу, но в ближайшем крупном супермаркете стойка конфет “Рошен” как стояла, так и стоит. Хочешь – покупай.
    Не быть голословным – адрес Хабаровск Краснореченская (номера дома не знаю , напротив сбербанка КР157.) магазин “самбери” кондитерский “отдел” слева от входа в районе тортов.
    Россия. Хабаровск.

  9. This is all well and good. The wider issue is why the Putin regime continues to follow the stealth strategy and denial when everyone knows Russia is at war. My guess: to keep analysts writing articles like this rather than writing articles about what should be done on a practical level to save Ukraine.

    • Putin’s stealth strategy is working that’s why. Putin bribed everybody. Half of the government in Ukraine is appointed by Moscow. For instance, the foreign minister Klimkin who grew up in Moscow and got to Ukraine only in the 1990-s. Look what he wrote in his twitter about the deadly attack on civilians in Mariupol: “2/2 Russia isn’t willing to stop terrorists in Ukraine. Can it at least call on its proxies to behave like trivial, not inhuman terrorists?” https://twitter.com/PavloKlimkin/status/559042974395691008
      Ukrainian bureaucracy is mounting a cover up blaming the terrorists instead of the Russian troops. This is incredible. But Klimkin is an idiot given what he writes.
      By the way, US and UK guaranteed Ukraine’s territorial integrity when they convinced Ukraine to liquidate its nuclear arsenal. 3rd largest at the time, larger than that of the UK, France and China. Why than UK and US do not participate in negotiation about Ukraine? Why only France and Germany do?
      Read Orwell. It is the writer of the year. Most instructive of the moment.

      • The strategy is that this is an EU problem to solve with support from the US and NATO. It is a regional problem with global ramifications. US direct involvement changes the dynamics dramatically. Russia seeks to blame the US. If it becomes a US-Russia problem then support in the EU, which is necessary, may prove much more complex with the anti-EU, pro-Putin groups that already enjoy some political support.

      • vidbeldavs, EU is a completely impotent parasitic collection of bureaucrats. Putin bribed most of them. And Putin acts as he does precisely because he counts on impotence of the EU.
        Also, it is not a “regional” problem. It is the World War 3. So far it is.
        In regard to US and UK, I think there are some obligations for guarantor parties, aren’t there? Ukraine had 2000 nuclear warheads, a huge arsenal of conventional weapon. It could contain Russia easily. Why US insisted then and why there are no obligations now? In fact, it is just another intellect test for The State Department of US. The one they fail miserably. They fail because they do not have a single descent analyst watching Ukraine and in general, watching the world. Taxpayers’ money is spent to imitate struggle with a virtual terrorist organizations like Al-Qaeda or on droning people in Yemen, because the Saudis bribed everybody in Washington, or on some other pseudo struggles.

        By the way, what is the purpose of NSA? The richest man in Ukraine, Akhmetov, (worth 16 billion), is a former professional card player and a small time criminal. He is a figurehead for FSB since 90-ies. Why he is not arrested or have not been arrested before? In 2010 for instance? Nothing of this mess would have happened. Akhmetov is a criminal, there is a lot of material against him. He owns the most expensive apartment in London and a lot more. He does not go there now, but someone from his entourage can be arrested, his assets… Same for the rest of criminal-oligarchs. Most of them are just figureheads for FSB. Appeared from nothing, never had and do not have any business skills…

  10. There has never been any doubt that the war in east Ukraine is a Russian special forces operation.

    Until the arrival of Russian special forces there was no significant separatist sentiment in east Ukraine. The regions of Donetsk and Luhansk have been for a long time run as criminal fiefdoms by local chieftains previously politically allied to the deposed former president Yanukovich.

    Russia is conducting a classic war by proxy in east Ukraine and has mounted a massive propaganda and disinformation campaign to malign the central Ukrainian government.

    Full scale war is a real possibility as Ukrainians will fight to defend their independence and sovereignty.

    Have the US and Britain, as signatories of the Budapest Memorandum done enough to help Ukraine in its hour of need?

    • Dear Lev, you comment under an article that gives hard evidence of Russian invasion. It has a picture of a giant missile launching system Smerch BM-30 and a picture of the newest modification of a smaller Grad-K system that only the Russian army has. The title of the article is “Hard evidence, the regular Russian army invades Ukraine”. And you state that it is a “proxy war ” and “a real war is a possibility”?
      Your comment contradicts what is written in the article. You just write some crap which is already in your head. What is your intelligence level in this case? As many people commenting, you are another example of people with good command of language, but lacking the common sense and logic. This only shows that the literate pseudo-elite are mostly idiots, no better than the low proletarian masses. The “democratic general system” is a bluff. It does not work. Truly smart people are a small minority. They need to be selected through tests and form the government by a randomized selection process.

  11. Pingback: Смешанная БТГр (106 вдд+4 тд) в БД в Украине, январь 2015 г. | My Blog

  12. The Situation is very easy to be understood : Russian Heads , too much prouds , and always thinking bad about all near Américanhood ; they want to fight to keep treir way of thinking , because in their minds , they are the TRUE . So they have to fight to give the right way to the Ukraine and to the world . But the world was not ready to fight against such crazy ideas . That is why no-russian cheaves need time to organise themselves in the great and real NO . Very sorry . Then , The solution : spend money only for peace , not for war , and everyone everywhere on the same country : The Globe .

  13. Pingback: UAHERALD - BUSINESS NEWS FROM UKRAINE | Hard Evidence, The Regular Russian Army Invades Ukraine

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